Common Scoter in Carmarthen Bay: ground counts interim report summary

CCW contract with BTO has just produced an interim report on results of ground counts of Common Scoter from several locations around Carmarthen Bay (Amroth, Pendine, Pembrey and Rhossili) in winter 2007/2008. (Report authors Ilya M. D. Maclean, Nigel P. Fairney, Andy J. Musgrove & Mark M. Rehfisch).

Aerial counts were planned but bad weather has prevented these from taking place. The latest ground counts have revealed very low numbers of common scoter this winter.

The combined peak counts from all sectors being as follows:
26th-27th Jan 6,189; 9th-10th Feb 5,258; 25th-26th Feb 3,393.

Concluding remarks:
"The number of common scoter over-wintering in Carmarthen Bay observed using ground counts is considerably lower than at any time since the period immediately after the Sea Empress oil spill. Without aerial survey data it is difficult to establish whether the lower counts are due to the scoters having relocated further offshore to where they cannot be viewed from the count station or to unsighted areas between Pembrey and Pendine (although the latter is unlikely as the birds would almost certainly have been seen in flight).

It may also represent a genuine decline within the Special Protection Area. During the last count, uncharacteristically, all bar c. 100 scoter at Pendine were in a large raft off the headland, suggesting perhaps that prey-depletion has occurred and that this area was the last extensive mussel bed left upon which to feed.

At Amroth they were similarly congregated off Telpyn Point, again suggesting resources may have been depleted. It is also noteworthy that there was a systematic decline in numbers between January and February. Perhaps there are less prey available to the birds than in previous years and by January, lack of food resources could have forced them to relocate to elsewhere. However, It is important to note that there is no hard evidence for this theory."

NB Graham Rees has recently calculated that the number of scoter passing Strumble Head in autumn 2007 was only 29% of the mean of the last 7 years counts. This suggests that most of the expected scoter flock did not arrive.